Financial model v0.3 · Estate Utility SPV

Can a 200-home estate's energy and water pay back its loan?

That's the one question the model answers. Change the assumptions below and watch the answer change. Everything is in plain language — no finance background needed.

Payments flowing from homes through meters to a lender

200 homes

in the estate

900 kWp

shared solar

1,800 kWh

battery storage

₦2.26bn

total build cost

Start from a scenario:

The customers

Electricity price, Year 1₦260/kWh

What residents pay per unit of electricity.

Price rise per year12.0%

Roughly tracks Nigerian inflation.

Bills actually paid95%

A bill isn't cash until it's collected.

Homes occupied, Year 175%

Estates fill up over time, up to 95%.

Building it

Cost overrun+0%

Extra build cost on top of the 10% contingency.

The loan

Share of cheaper, longer loan100%

Climate-finance backed, 15-year tenor. The rest is a 10-year commercial loan.

Cheaper loan interest rate9.75%

9.75% is the Nigerian precedent (InfraCredit).

Commercial loan interest rate18.0%

Typical Nigerian bank lending.

Grace period2 yrs

Years paying interest only while the estate fills.

Not yet investable

It pays the lender, but the cushion falls below the 1.20x lenders require in 1 of 15 years.

1.01x

Worst year's cover (min DSCR)

Years under the 1.20x lender rule

₦0

Cash shortfall to fund, 15 yrs

Debt cover, year by year

Click a year to break it down

1.0x break-even

1.20x lender rule

123456789101112131415

Follow the money: Year 5

1
Homes lived in
95% occupancy this year.
190 of 200
2
Electricity sold
Homes and common areas need 960 MWh; solar can supply 1,279 MWh. We can only sell the smaller of the two.
960 MWh
3
Money collected
₦373m electricity + ₦51m water, after 5% of bills go unpaid.
₦424m
4
Running costs
Solar & battery upkeep ₦60m, staff & admin ₦44m, water operations ₦13m.
−₦117m
5
Saving for replacements
A yearly reserve so worn parts can be replaced.
−₦28m
6
Cash left for the lender (CFADS)
This is what's actually available to repay debt.
₦279m
7
Loan repayment due
Interest plus a slice of the loan itself.
−₦173m
8
Debt cover (DSCR)
₦1.61 available for every ₦1 owed. Comfortable.
1.61x

Who pays to build it

Build cost ₦1.95bn + contingency ₦195m + debt reserve ₦120m = ₦2.26bn

Senior loan 55% · ₦1.24bn

Junior 15%

Sponsor equity 30%

What the full Excel model adds

This page runs the core engine live. The full workbook also covers tax, the junior and equity payouts, the exit sale and climate impact. Its base case:

Year 5 EBITDA: ₦307m
Yield on cost: 13.6%
Project IRR: 15.6% nominal / 3.2% real
Equity IRR: 22.1% nominal / 9.0% real
Required equity return: 22.5% nominal / 9.4% real
Return from exit sale: 67% of total

Read this carefully

• The model's job is to find out what must be true for the project to work — not to make it look good.
• The 9.75% rate is a real Nigerian precedent over 7 years. A 15-year version is an assumption, not an offer.
• Two-thirds of equity returns come from selling at the end — the operating cash alone is thin.
• Excel verdict for the base case: Not yet investable — below the lender's cover rule.